OCK - unwarranted panic

The share price movement of OCK for the past few days was unexpected. The sudden rise to an all-time high of RM0.87 on 19.12.2013 was pre-meditated but not the sudden selldown in the subsequent days. More so the selldown was done by LTAT, being one the substantial shareholder.

 

I received many calls from concerned investors recently. This is to be expected. Their concerns are more to the sudden erratic price movement recently rather than the company business performance. I made a pledge with them that I will cover their losses if, some how, the price went below their buying price. They took it as a joke from me but I am serious. Many of them bought at 0.55 - 0.75. I think that is the only right thing for me to do since they are my long term associates. They have been with me since Presbhd, Dayang, POS to name a few, and recently Datasonic. I don't think I will cease my commitment on OCK. After the final analysis, there is really nothing to worry about. Stay focus on the long term trend of this stock and the company. The new all-time high will be breached soon.

 

We should take the new all-time high at RM0.87 as a good sign for better things to come into 2014.

Its price closed at RM0.78 on 30.12.2013.

Property is the best bet in 2016

As mentioned in my previous post, property market will be hit in year 2014 and 2015 before it starts to rise back again in year 2016. The next two years are uncertainty periods for the property market due to the recent Bank Negara's action to clamp down on the incentives offered by the developers. DIBS scheme being one of them and it is by far the most popular and innovation scheme bundled by developers across the market to push their sales. Those whom are into property market should know who actually first introduced this scheme back in 2008. In those early days, it was not call DIBS yet which we know now. The term used back then was 5/95. Incidentally, the term was so popular that McDonald borrowed the term as part of the their marketing promo later on.

 

5/95 scheme is a financing arrangement given by the developers. It was so successful that it helped to bring out the whole property market from depression mode in 2008.

 

So, who actually was the first to introduce the 5/95 financing package? Yes. It is SP Setia.

 

You pay 5% as down payment with 95% loan and pay nothing until you collect your house key. Brilliant idea !

 

Much has changed since then. Along the way, 5/95 scheme was lumped in with other incentives to entice buyers which is generally become known as DIBS scheme. But the scheme has been disallowed by Bank Negara starting 1.1.2014, purportedly to curb speculations and control over rising house prices.

 

There is still a small window of opportunity to still benefit from the DIBS scheme before it is disallowed by end of this year. Whatever you buy now, keys will be delivered 2 or 3 years later. However, try to look for those that will deliver keys with the longest period, say 3 years. This is because you want to take a long jump into year 2016 instead of year 2015 or 2014. For these reasons, we had bought few properties from SP Setia in recent months.

Why chose SP Setia's product? I think there is no need to tell why. Many people know about the company. I, for one, am particularly impress with their personal touch on everything they do. The above letter from their CEO is one of the many things.

 

And yes, landed property is always the safer and better bet. Secondly is the developer's brand name. Thirdly, their quality of workmanship and lastly, their after sale services. I must say SP Setia has it all at top notch, as far as my personal experience is concerned since the days I got a taste with their properties in Eco Park @ Shah Alam.

By the way, I am not paid to promote the company. I give credit where credit due.

Some may ask, how about the share price. I think it is not time to invest in their company share just yet. Wait until Liew had left the scene. Why? I leave it to you to ponder.

Merry Christmas, Malaysia

Merry Christmas, Malaysia.

Cute Christmas deco at KLCC

I was updated that Datasonic is doing very well. I am glad to know. That's good for everyone.

 

UncleZ signing off from Sydney.

2013 coming to an end but not the stock market

There are 10 more living days remaining before 2013 is out. For stock market players, there are 6 more market days remaining before 2013 is out.

 

Perhaps, it is time to plan your investment for next year. How is the stock market going to be in 2014 with the KLCI index is at all-time high at the moment? We cannot look at the stock market in isolation. Thus we ought to ask the question of how is the property market going to be in 2014 when all the dampeners start to take effect from 1st Jan 2014. The next important question is how are the currency and the country economy going to be in 2014 when the tapering story in USA starts to tickle comes 2014?

 

For a start, local property market will be hit in 2014 due to the dampeners announced in the Budget 2014. It is my believe that the effect will carry into 2015. However, the local property market will start to pick up and improve in 2016. Having said that, the property prices will not necessary come down a lot in 2014 and 2015. Prices at hot spot areas will still hover at high level which is unreachable by the majority of the working class people. Sales volume will come down considerably as more speculators will have to halt their buying spree appetite. The genuine buyers buying for own stay will have to get used to the high price and start to think of a way to buy, at least their first property for own stay. And the rich will, well, continue hunting for value buy and quality properties. They are the least affected by the dampener measures introduced in 2014 onwards. Ultimately, it is the genuine buyers buying for own stay will be at the losing end. Property prices will continue upward trend again in 2016 after the brief hiccup in 2014 and 2015. That's my prognosis of the property market for the next 3 years.

 

So, how does this affect the stock market?

 

With the property market turns unfavourable, money will pour into stock market to seek for better returns. It is well known that property market is very much illiquid compare to stock market. However because of property is much safer, we have seen substantial money have been poured into the property market since 2009. Things will change in 2014. With lower demands are anticipated in 2014 onwards, many have or will stop doing what they have been doing for the past few years. But still, they have to park their money somewhere. And stock market will be the top choice for many of these people. With the current buoy sentiment in the stock market, things will be even get better for the coming months into 2014. Tapering issue has since tamed with Fed's announcement few days ago. Brilliant strategy by the Fed I must admit. While i believe the whole of tapering issue is blown of out proportion, but that is another story for another day. Now, what should ordinary investors do in view of the current situation? Any weakness created by the tapering effect will be great opportunity to pick up some quality stocks. The question is will you able to pin point the exact timing when the weakness in stock market presents itself. Could it be Jan, Feb, March or even June 2014? If one stay sideline to wait for the weakness in stock market to happen, chances are one may have missed all the rallies in the stock market which may runs into several months before the tapering effect actually takes place. Say, you have been patience to have waited and are so good to able to get the timing right and get in just when market is at its weakness period. But the buys at that time may not guarantee the returns you would expect as the weakness in the stock market may drag on for several months more. Thus not only you have missed the chances to make profit for the several months rally in stock price prior to the market weakness due to tapering effect but also have to hang-on onto the stocks you have just purchased during the weakness in the stock market for several months more. Isn't this call double whammy.

 

To avoid the above scenario, picking a correct stock is utmost important. The stock must able to give you decent gains within the next 3 - 4 months. When the tapering effect do really takes place and created market weakness, at least you have buffer to withstand the onslaught of price volatility. Normalising will take place eventually, after the tapering effect ends and stock price will eventually go back to its original position if not better. Therefore, pick a correct stock is the key and pick now. Take Datasonic for example. If one had bought at RM6.00 and now is about RM9.90. It is expected that it will rise further for the next 2 months. So, if the tapering effect do really takes place, say in Mar 2014, the share price will come down but I doubt it will go back to RM6.00 level. There is already enough buffer to take care of the volatility. When the tapering effect period is over, I can bet my last dollar that the share price will normalise and go back to its previous level if not better. I always say, unless you can time the market, there is no way you can beat the market volatility and make big and good money. The best way is plan for long term in stock market. Short term play and contra play are just to boost and satisfy short term excitement. Never forget your long term goal is always to make big money and stay ahead in the game.

 

Believe me, if you have sold your stocks to realise some gains, you will find yourself to have pour back the money into the stock market eventually. In other words, you will be sucked back into the stock market knowingly or unknowingly. The only time I see people not pouring back into the stock market is when he or she wanted to buy new houses, to use it for some avoidable medical expenses, children education or well, for some very personal endeavour desire.

Parting shot, despite the stock price has increased, there are still substantial upside among the small and mid-cap stocks as their growth prospects remain very promising. However, you must be prudent and be able to pick the better managed ones.

 

Do take note of what the PM said in June 2013 where he had urged the government-linked investment companies, especially the EPF, to play a more prominent role and increase market vibrancy by investing in good quality mid-cap stocks.

 

"It is time for EPF to step up and play a prominent role as this will increase the velocity of shares traded and make a significant contribution to the overall market vibrancy. Their (GLICs) participation will provide another avenue for companies to access primary and secondary funding and bring their businesses to the next stage of development," PM Najib said in his keynote address at Invest Malaysia 2013 here yesterday. - The Star 14 June 2013

Invest wisely. Stay invested. Good luck.

Presbhd & OCK - the promising stars

1) Prestariang Berhad

A quick take on Presbhd for 19.12.2013.

Another all-time intraday high at RM2.96.

Another all-time high closing at RM2.90.

2) OCK Berhad

A quick take on OCK for 19.12.2013.

Another all-time intraday high at RM0.87 which breaks its previous high of RM0.85 recorded on 20.11.2013.

Another all-time high closing at RM0.86.

It had an interesting run-up today after moving sideway for the past 4 weeks. The wait has finally bears fruit. I have been collecting the stocks aroung RM0.80 during the same period. There were big volume transacted at RM0.865 which reflects a strong interest for the stock. There will be more head rooms to go moving forward and it is worthwhile to be kept invested in the stock.

 

Some said OCK is like a old man because it moves very slowly. Who cares as long as it moves eventually and the moves are always upward. Slowly but surely.

Some recommended Benalec which is almost the same price, but I would prefer OCK - young, small but promising company in the long run.

 

Today is particularly interesting because of the above 2 stocks are moving upward while the KLCI index is moving downward.

Its (Presbhd) price closed at RM2.90 on 19.12.2013

Its (OCK) price closed at RM0.86 on 19.12.2013.

Datasonic - joining the elite club

Just barely a week after the post on 9.12.2013, the stock price has risen to RM10.00, an all-time high.

 

Those who are skeptical about the strong surge in its price for the past few months and attributed it to speculative play, they have missed the point by a big margin. There are many criteria for a stock to be qualified for speculative play. Just look at the top 10 most active stocks everyday. It is not difficult to know why those stocks are target for speculative play. There are many similarity in characteristics those stocks have.

 

On the other hand, look at the 10.00 Elite Club like PetGas, Aeoncr, UMW, DLady and the like. All of them come a long way before joining the 10.00 Elite Club. How are their financial results? What kind of businesses are they in? What are their PE ratio? Mostly all are above 20. As for Datasonic, its PE ratio is still in the teen range.

 

The company is still at growing up stage. It is ain't created just for IC and passport businesses. You have not yet see the fully grown up creature that you could possibly imagine.

 

On the transaction note, there were 13,100 shares changed hands at RM10.00.

 

Datasonic - hello 10.

 

 

From a long term perspective view, there is no different either it is 9.50, 9.70 or 10.00. The difference is just a small change compare to what it will going to be.

 

Let's take 10.00 as the first milestone for the history of the stock in the coming months and years to be remembered.

 

Its price closed at RM9.88 on 17.12.2013.

Presbhd - racing higher Part 2

A quick take on Presbhd on 12.12.2013.

Another all-time intraday high at RM2.82.

Another all-time high close at RM2.78.

It was a strong showing yesterday by Presbhd. Touched new intraday high of RM2.82 before retraced and closed at RM2.78. All in, it up 12 cents. From a penny stock at RM0.70 since late 2011, this stock certainly has come a long way.

 

As shown above, there were 10 lots changed hands at RM2.82. Not much but good enough to create a new-high record.

Just manage to sit down after busy for the last two weeks setting directions for the team what to plan for in the coming weeks.

Its price closed at RM2.78 on 12.12.2013.

Presbhd - racing higher

Another of my favourite stock none other than Presbhd.

Just as I have expected, today Presbhd breaks its old record high and hit another new all-time high close at RM2.68, up 9 cents.

Its all-time intraday high is RM2.70.

To recap. The company had just ex-dividend on 3.12.2013 for 3.5 cents. Its price was adjusted and opened at RM2.59 at the opening bell. The price was closed at RM2.63 a day earlier. If that is to be taken into consideration, theoretically the closing price should be RM2.72, if we wanted to look at it this way.

There will be more upward actions until end of the year. This is one of the best long term investment stock. Good dividends and capital gains.

 

Its price closed at all-time high RM2.68 on 9.12.2013.

Datasonic - the sleeping giant

What a quiet day for DSonic today. Today all individual transactions were less than 10 lots. Has anyone wonders why the stock price still manage to stay in positive territory despite the trading was only 15% buy-rate today?

Today volume is the lowest since 6.11.2013 and this reflects normalising of sort for the stock. Do not expect a tiger keeps charging and roaring non-stop forever. Everything and anything needs a rest.

I like the stock's conditions for the past one week and I like today particularly. Is it too expensive now? It is expensive because most of us think RM9,080.00 per lot is alot and buying 10 lots will cost you RM90,800.00. It is expensive because most of us think that if the price retraced another 20 cents will cause another RM200 lost on top of the already paper lost of RM320 since the price retraced from RM9.40 to RM9.08. Didn't I said earlier, set aside whatever amount you are comfortable with and see what it will be for the next 2-3 months.

Its price closed at RM9.08 on 9.12.2013.

Let the market become quiet for awhile

How many of us manage make profit from the stocks below? It is such amusement to see people chased after these stocks for one reason or another. It is lost opportunity to put money in these stocks and get stuck for months, and it will be nerve breaking to lose money and never recover from it.

 

I really want to know how many average retail players manage to make big profit from the above stocks. Even if you did, chances are you will pour back into another stock hoping another round of luck will be at your side and make another profit. Unless you stop where you are after a profit round and go for long holiday, you will be joining the game again and the vicious circle continues.

How many of us are willing to lose money. Ego bruised is very unsettling to some. The most dangerous part is unable to cut lost and move on. Buying stock is the easiest part. Selling a profit stock is the hardest, what more selling a losing stock.

Let me tell you this. Average retail players will never able to outdo the big boys. You may win once, twice but eventually and at the end, you will lose to them. Win small but lose big in the end.

The big boys are those with resources to out manoeuvre and control the market. The ordinary players are just like small kids playing among the adults. When the adults fight, the small kids get stampede. They will let you win the first few rounds. Time will comes to take out the knife and start the slaughter. Some of the charts above can tell you when the slaughter begins. We see this all the time but we don't participate.

The big boys even have grouping. Each trying to outdo one another. Their put road blocks here and there. Sometime the road blocks are fake to give the impression that more actions are in play. There is no emotion attached to it because they are so immune to the situation. Their performance is not dictate by one day's action but over a period of time.

On the other hand, there are also genuine parties that want to make profit through proper long term investment. They are more discipline and their actions are more consistent. Sometime they could also become the victims for the big boys.

I have been advocating to people to invest wisely especially the young. It is good to invest but invest with an objective. That is to make money constantly. It doesn't matter if you make only 5% for the first round. It is still a profit rather than a loss. Build experience and confidence and it goes a long way.

Below are some example of stocks that could have make money albeit slowly over time. Four wisdoms to have when investing in stock market - Patience, Conviction, Trust and Expect less excitement.

 

 

The big boys don't like to "stir" these stocks for a very simple reason. It is also the same reason make these stocks a bit boring. But who cares as long as money is made albeit takes longer time. You want to make money many times and long time, not just one time.

On a side note, let Datasonic takes a rest for now. If worry that the price will plunge, it would have plunged long ago. Have patience, conviction, trust and expect less excitement, sometime. Give yourself 2 months and if the returns failed to meet your expectation, switch and move on.

Datasonic - the unparalleled stock

It has been quite a storm created lately because of its meteoric rise from a relatively unheard of stock into a much like celebrity stock. Much fear has been created not because of its strong stock price performance but because of fear to miss the boat should the price keeps on shooting the roof.

I had made few comments in i3forum for the past few months. From what I observed is that most people are more willing to bet for a short term gains rather than aiming for a long term gains which could multiple the gains of an unimaginable proportions.

My years of experience in stock market and observing people's behaviour over the past decades, one profound observation is that most people that tend to have irrational investing behaviour and is probably due to lack of investment strategy. It was the same then and it is the same now.  One has to have deep understanding of the real meaning of  Investment Strategy. It has very broad and deep meaning. Take for example, if your bought a stock at RM1.50. When the price reached RM2.50 and you sell and pocketed the profit. Good and fine, only and only if one did not enter again should the price move up higher. If one did, one is technically pouring back whatever gains one had made earlier plus top-up new money because the stock price is now much higher. Say, the stock price keeps on going up and hit RM4.00. What would normally the same investor do? Stay side way? Probably. If it went up further to RM6.00, what would the same investor do now? Stay side way? Chances are he or she will re-enter again because he or she is unwilling to miss the boat again. Isn't this is a vicious cycle? Take this further for discussion sake. The stock price went up further to RM7.00 and at that time, there will be many comments offered that there are more room to go because of its strong financial results and whatnot. If he or she decided to sell, then it is fine and good again. Say he or she did not. Later, the share plunged to RM5.00 level. I am quite certain he or she will sell because of the worry that the stock price will fall further. After all, previous gains made earlier on can more or less cover this losses. Sound familiar? No worry. You are not alone. Are you wrong if you have been in such situation? You are not wrong either. You did make money during the first round and because of your luck is not on your side during the second round, that is why you lose money.

If your are a strong and disciplined TA practitioners, the above scenario may not be you. That's why I always have great respect for TA people. Having said that, there are times TA could miss some very good opportunities. Let's look at Datasonic case. If TA is anything to go by, you would have take the money from the table somewhere mid way during the rise. Safe and sound now because a strong TA practitioner will unlikely to re-enter unless there is a plunge in stock price.

What I am trying to drive at from the above discussions is does it matters what comes on next Monday if you have bought the stock at RM3, 4, 5 or even 9 earlier IF you truly believed this is the stock for future?

Look at the numbers in the newly released Q3 report and also look at the accompanying statement with the report, if you can decipher one key point in that statement.

So much for the tactical aspect. Let's talk about another aspect. I must admit I do get some special information sometime. I sounded the alarm back in early September and I did briefly mentioned about the stock to some of my associates. As usual, I was probably talking to myself at that time because the stock is unheard of, even most analysts are not into it just yet. My team had taken huge position back then. Yes, my team. I was unmoved when the stock seemed to have started to reverse trend on 20.11.2013 and not prepare to call for intervention mode. All these because of having an Investment Strategy in placed. As I said, does it matters me what comes on next Monday even if the stock price plunged? Not at all. On the other hand, does it matters me what comes on next Monday even if the stock price keep rising? Not at all too. This is because I truly believed this is the stock for future.

Little beef to share perhaps. I have no longer pay much attention on how the stock price moves at the moment. My team has taken a step further and is working on the scenario 2 months down the road when everyone seems to be pre-occupied with what comes after share split. What we are doing is creating permutation of scenarios to mimic the situation 2 months later. In fact, there are so much data involved that my team had to bring in more computer brain power to get things going smoothly.

On the another note, the individual transactions were quite small over the past few weeks. We are gathering information as to who was buying or selling. If you don't understand what I meant, try compare with Maybank's individual transactions throughout the trading day.

Investing is meant to make you happy and rich. Invest wisely. Good luck.

Its price closed at all-time high RM9.40 on 29.11.2013.

Why I start blogging

I find using blog is one easy way that can effectivly share information and knowledge. It can be shared far and wide from anywhere anytime whenever I like. Thus I have decided to start blogging.