Stock market is a game of prediction

What? You must be kidding, Z !

That was one of the reaction immediately when I told one of my business associates who is very savvy in business but not doing so savvy in stock market.

If stock market is indeed game of prediction, then it is no different with gambling, was the next disbelief response. Actually I already know that going be the response. In fact not only it will come from him but will likely by most people, if not all.

Late last year, stock market brought back some shine to many people. Many stocks hit new high. This brought back many retail players into the market. Then not long after that, in January, the market was badly shaken. In fact, many economists have predicted the economy of the country will not be doing well long before 2016 greets us. Yes. Many economists predicted that. And on the same backdrop, many stock market experts too predicted the stock market won't be doing well in coming months. There were many whispers predicting December 2015 was going to be last window dressing exercise to help prop up some stock prices before headwinds going to hit us in 2016. On the other hand, in the midst of these headwinds, some analysts predicted which sector of stocks to invest in to reap maximum profits. Some go as far as to use fengshui to help reinforce that prediction. Some use technical analysis to predict the behaviour of stock price. So you see. 

Everyone and anyone is trying to predict what will happen to the stock market in the coming days or months. Everyone and anyone who buys stocks is based on his or her prediction that stock will perform. With the onslaught of some many predictions, our hands are so full that we don't know which one prediction is more accurate than the next one. Many people failed in stock market because they use the wrong prediction based on the wrong reasons and from the wrong sources at the wrong time.

If one predicts December 2015 is going to be window dressing exercise, one would have high tendency to buy in Nov and sell when price is up in Dec. This kind of prediction might be true but it is wrong reason to buy stocks.

But if one chooses the prediction of foreign funds might be coming back because of MYR currency is so weakened now that it is cheap for them to come back to our shore, one might consider to higher the bet based on this prediction.

That brings me back to the stock that I fall in love this year. I believed in the prediction that the company will do well based on the information I received and trusted with good reasons. But it is still a prediction on that of its stock price performance. No more no less.

Celine Dion's Husband, 73, Passed Away

René Angélil, musician and husband of worldwide singing sensation Celine Dion, died on Thursday, January 14, 2016 after battling throat cancer. He was 73.

"René Angélil, 73, passed away this morning at his home in Las Vegas after a long and courageous battle against cancer," the statement read. "The family requests that their privacy be respected at the moment; more details will be provided at a later time."

The Clark County Office of the Coroner/Medical Examiner also released a separate statement regarding Angélil's death. "Mr. Angélil, 73, died of throat cancer at his home in Henderson while under the care of a physician," Clark County coroner John Fudenberg said in a statement. "We have determined Mr. Angélil’s death was due to natural causes. No further investigation into his death is expected. Our condolences go out to Mr. Angélil’s family and friends during this difficult time for them."

Dion also confirmed the heartbreaking news via Twitter. Angélil was born and raised in Montreal and embarked there on a music career in the 1960s. Eventually, he went into the artist management side of the business and became Dion's manager. The French-Canadian couple married in 1994, a few years before Dion cemented her legendary status with her biggest, most iconic song, "My Heart Will Go On,” which was featured in James Cameron's Oscar-winning flick, Titanic.

Dion and her husband share three kids: eldest son René-Charles, 14, and twin boys Nelson and Eddy, 5. The songstress, who took a hiatus from her residency in Las Vegas in August 2014.

"I’m trying really hard to show my children that sickness and things happen in life. You cannot be crying and be depressed and consistently talk about, ‘Oh my God,’" Dion, 47, told during her return to the stage. "René-Charles is going to be 15 years old soon. He’s a wonderful young man. He’s entered his teenage years, and sometimes we can go really crazy, for some teenagers, but so far so good. I have tremendous respect for my oldest, René-Charles, because he’s showing strength to see his dad this way because he’s been his anchor. When he was younger he knew his dad was older but they bonded a lot. I’m sure it's hard for him."

She added: "Unfortunately there a lot of people struggling with battles. When you have family around I think it helps tremendously."

Dion told in that interview that she was proud of her husband. "He doesn’t stop amazing me," she said of his strength. "I’m being heard through my interviews, through my songs. This is his time to be heard. This is his way. It’s going to be his way, and it’s going to be the way he wants it to be."

- US

*****

It is her husband who makes her who she is today and always there to support her career. I had watched her performance on stage in Las Vegas few years back. She is an amazing singer on her own right. On personal front, she is such a lovely woman with full of passion and humility. I hardly see any bad comment about her in media.

 I love her musics and her real person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjM3YFs_EjY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfJ2O6J4UoE

Property and New Year 2016

I wrote about this exactly 2 years ago. here.

That was in 2013. At that time, things were still pretty good in property industry and fully aware that year 2014 and 2015 will be hard hit on property industry. But i made an estimation that property industry will improve and getting better in year 2016. And now, here we are, year 2015 has ended. We are now saying hello to year 2016.

Unlike the previous years, I could feel subdue mood all rounds whenever I met with people not only in property industry but in other industries as well. There is something everyone feels not right but yet cannot do much about it. But we have to move on and look forward.

2 years on and now year 2016. My property investment in Setia Eco Glades will be coming on stream early this year. I wish I will be only getting the keys by end of 2016. But no. With developer is emphasising on efficiency in delivery of houses, keys are expected to be delivered ahead of schedule in first quarter of 2016 ! Anyway, I am not worry at all. Landed property is and will always is a safer bet for property investment.

My recent visit to view the almost-complete product is breathtaking, to say the least. Nice environment, waterway streaming near the backyard, butterflies beautifully flying around as though welcoming you to their new sanctuary and most important is the quiet and tranquillising environment. 

I wish I could move there. But no. Moving is out of question. Too old for that. I am too rooted at my current place, just like i am too rooted to this country that any country that I went I still feel the belonging to this country.

Let's hope this New Year is one that is joyous and prosperous to everyone.

Malaysia will stand tall again.

Happy New Year

Gadang - the giant coming Ep.2

Gadang.

Today its price jumped 16 cents to close at all-time high of RM2.35. The highest jump in a single day for the past one year. I received many 'aiya' message from my associates today because of either they have missed the excitement for not having invested in this stock or had sold out the stock too early.

I was asked why such the strong price movement. The answer to this is very obvious which I had said much earlier and the answer remains the same. Here.
 

This is what I tell people whenever was asked why I invested in a particular stock - I already know I make money when I buy the stock and not when I sell the stock.

What a nice way to start a New Year.

Good Luck.

Its price closed at all-time high RM2.35 on 05.01.2016.

The Goose and the golden eggs story

Today, one of my fund managers called to say hello as he usually does when certain stock hits new high. Sometime I feel like he is a alarm clock to me. Very updated. Very good of him. Being a businessman he is, he asked whether I have any plan to liquidate any stock that is sitting on huge paper gains.

He even told me that I have been holding the stock since donkey years. Of course he was joking as he always does when comes to my investment style. My reply to him was that why kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Actually he makes money too when my portfolio increases.

The PE question

I received the following question from Vincent recently.

Hi Unclez, I have been following your blog for quite a long time, and I am impressed with your long term value investment. I have bought Presbhd before Bonus Issue and I sold it during last year December sell down in the view that the earning was reducing and PE was quite high as well. I then told myself to buy back when the price back to the reasonable PE, which might be around 20. But since then the price has gone up until now PE around 90. I missed the boat along the road, or perhaps I should not sell at first place. Can you enlighten me what strategy should be implemented when we are seeing high PE stock, why some stocks already traded at high PE still can go up, whereas some like Gadang before went up recently has Low PE last time but the share price didn't move much. I believe both Presbhd and Gadang have bright future growth, and I can categories Gadang was undervalued share with Low PE. But how about Presbhd and Dsonic? Hope to hear from you and appreciate your views very much as I am still learning in stock market. Thank you.

What attracted me is the question of PE. Many people had asked me this similar question and they are looking for a sensible answer. PE is a ratio number. Simply, price of stock divides by earnings per share. The P, we usually take current price while the E, we take last year full year earnings. That lies the problem. PE ratio become "history" number. Thus, it is not a very good yardstick to determine whether a particular stock is pricey or otherwise. I prefer to use prospective PE, meaning base on future earnings rather than last year earnings. And that is the challenge. Everyone can have last year earning numbers but no one can be 100% sure of further earning numbers. So how. you may ask? Well, let's put it this way. Stock market is not a fair game. The person who makes the most money is the one who knows the pulse of the company. Sadly, ordinary retail players have this disadvantage. They mostly rely on analyst's report.

My friend, a chief fund manager, had described the characteristic of PE in a more academic but plain way. He said if the earnings of a stock is expected to improve next year, for example, the market would have priced this in and hence, the stock would starts to run. But since the earnings of the stock has yet to be delivered, naturally the P component of the PE ratio would rise first, making the PE number high. Subsequently, when the earnings are really delivered, the E component goes up, thus reducing the PE valuation. However, and this is the most important part, if there is another round of earnings growth, the P goes up again, raising valuations. UncleZ always looking out for this "another round of earnings growth" with the help of knowing the pulse of the company.

PEs are about long term averages and made up of extreme highs and lows. Low PE stock does not guarantee for good price action but does give certain comfort level than high PE stock. Stock market works in mysterious way. To be successful in stock market, PE is just one of the tool to use but not and cannot be the only tool to use to decide your investment action.

Anyway, you had sold stocks and made profits, that is good and fine. Atleast you have won the market, not losing to it. And that's the goal. What you have missed out is probably the question of big win or small win. But it is still a win. Well done.

So, Vincent, I hope this enlighten you.

Good luck.

I will fall in love with this stock

I have the privilege to be invited to accompany an entourage to a fast growing ASEAN country of 3 times bigger its population than Malaysia. It has vast land and huge human head counts. For the seasoned businessman, he will see there is huge business opportunities to grab. This country needs technology and financial muscles from outsiders to bring up its economy and social development. The government is doing what they can and could afford by easing or relaxing many of the rules. One company that has benefited from this open policy by the government and that was where I had the opportunity to join this trip to the country to see myself first hand how things are doing.

 

Of course going there without a punt or two at their golf course will not complete the trip, be it for leisure or business trip. It is on the golf course that conversations are more relax and candid. The conversation with one of the entourage member, which happened to be a strategic fund manager, went something like below.

 

A : How is thing went on so far?

Z : On stock portfolio front, very good. On personal health front, not so good. Doctor advised me to take extra caution on my diet and exercise more. When one getting older, this is to be expected.

A : Don't worry Z. Come here more often. Nice golf course, nice food and so many more.

Z : Yes. At least get away from the daily dose of politics that are happening in kl. Benefit no people except politicians. You see. Not every singly day goes by without mentioning about politic.

A : Agree. You just mentioned this very moment too.

Z : Ahh yes. I did. Just cut the crap of politic and talk about....  golf game.

A : He finally managed to pull this deal through.

Z : Yes. If not, we won't be here sitting and enjoying this view.

A: Will you ride on this company stock?

Z: Yes. This is will be my first for year 2016's stock selection. Just like Gadang is for year 2015.

A: That is telling. I will take up your recommendation.

Z: I know you already make up your mind the moment you join this trip.

A: You are right. Talk about Gadang. 2.10 last Friday right? We have a good buy on this. Over 30 percent since you told me early of this year.

Z: Did I tell you specifically?

A: Not directly. Remember we were having breakfast with the bunch of us together with your teenage grandson. Your stock-wise grandson. He was so young and yet his knows of all these technical jargons.

Z: Yes. I think I remember. Yes. One by one contract is now surfacing. For your fund, I believe 30% is a good number for you to boast to your unit holders.

A: And that thanks to you, Z.

****************

I am working on a project partly to help my teenage grandson to have a good footing in this real world. All this while he has been helping me to cut, paste, write, extract newspaper cutting, typing and whatnot and help me to run it on this blogspot. There were time I did it myself but it is taxing for an old person like me. So, most of the time he helps me to tidy up the loose ends especially on the computing part. I am a person believe in no free lunch. People will value the things more when they themselves paid for it. It is not that I need it but atleast people will not take things for granted. The proceeds will go to him as a token of his hardwork and also for helping me to run this blog. I will update you via email on a specific stock to invest for long term with a brief write-up. Just USD10. If that stock did not perform within a year, I will refund in full together with an apology. Those who is interested to know more, could email me at unclezm@gmail.com

Good luck.