Presbhd - racing higher Part 8

Yes. The last time this title was carried was on 06.07.2014 when its price hit new high close at RM2.16. Today, just like any stock after experienced few roller coaster rides, again its price hit another all-time high close at RM2.48. Those who have invested thus long will feel the sentiment behind this new-high events story. If you are newcomer to this story, you would probably think it is just another story of lucky stock that managed to record new high. But no. This new high is unprecedented. Many stocks have yet to recover from the mayday that happened to the stock market during last year Q4 period. Presbhd not only breaks new barrier but against all odds when technical indicator pointing at different direction.

My associate called me to ask what is my take on today new high record and asked the usual question like many will ask - why going higher and higher without any news flow? My reply is a simple one liner - look beyond the technical indicator but look within the core of the company. And subsequent question is - can buy now? My immediate response was - Not for you because you have doubt when i told you in January this year. There is no reason your doubt has cleared just because the price has shoot up. Investment decision is made based on confidence in the company and not based on price movement. But it is different story if it is about trading decision. And I don't advocate trading in stock.

Notice the high buying volume to suppress any selling attempt

I repeat again. Stock trading is not suitable for retail player. If you know the real inside working of stock trading by the big brothers, then you will know what I mean. Learn long term survival in stock market is the way to go for retail player or shall I say, retail investor.

Good luck.

Its price closed at RM2.48 on 25.03.2015.

Are you doing AN investment in Stock Market

Some say they involve in stock market is for investment. Is it true? Ask yourself these questions:-

1) Why I buy stock?    

Answer options

a) because i want to make pocket money    

b) because i want to make a lot of money    

c) because i heard my friend makes money from stock market    

d) because i have enough money to invest in stock market    

e) because i want to learn to make money from stock market    

f) because i want to join in the fun    

g) because i dont know where to invest my money   

 h) because i just dont know why i love the stock market    

i) because i love the excitement   

j) because i read analyst reports recommending this stock is good    

k) because my friend recommended this stock is good    

l) because i have hot tips    

m) because buying a 30 cents stock is very cheap. won't die one.

Is any of the answers above is yours?

Next question.

2) Do I understand how the stock market works?

Answer options

a) Yes. Buy low sell high. simple    

b) Yes. I read reports and books. Lots of them    

c) Yes. I know PE, RSI, DY, NTA   

d) Yes. I know about shooting star, hammer, doji, white marubozu, hanging man, morning star, three white soldier, three inside up and whatnot    

e) Yes. Buy on rumour sell on fact    

f) Yes. Pick the phone and call my broker when I get tips    

g) Yes. Buy good company and sell when price up 10%, 20% or 30%    

h) Yes. Buy when everyone is fearful and sell when everyone is greedy   

 i) No. But I will learn along the way


My personal experience to the first question is all the answers above. That was when I first started in stock market. That's why i failed big time in my very first endeavor in stock market. I learned and really learned the hard way. And my personal experience to the second question is all the answers above. Again, that's why i failed big time. I paid my tuition fee as some like to say.

So, what is the real meaning of making AN investment in stock market?

Lets start off with : there is no such thing as investment in stock market which many of us like to believe if we give our self a target price for a particular stock that you have invested in. This is doing a trading mindset. Trading mindset is not an investing mindset. Sounded unorthodox. Yes, it is. UncleZ never a compliance to the norm beliefs. Put your money in a stock for 3 months is not a good investment but still can consider an investment if you exit because of company fundamental has changed so drastically in the span of 3 months. But what the heck with this investment that you have chosen in the first place if the company fundamental could changed so drastically in just 3 months?! So it is not a good investment but still an investment nonetheless. On the other hand, put your money in a stock is not an investment if you set a target price and on top of that with 3 months timeframe. This is doing a stock trading. You trade because you expect the profit will come in 3 months. You don't invest because you expect your target price will profit you in 3 months timeframe. You invest because you know the company will grow over time and that your investment in the company will grow in value. Another thought. You won't call it an investment for targetting RM30 for every RM1,000 you deposited in FD account after the timeframe of 1 year period, don't you?

Stock price move up and down because of human emotion. For example, when a company announces a 100% increase in revenue in its quarterly report. Everyone gets excited. Excitement is emotion. Investment is not a function of emotion. It is a function of the health and future prospects of the company.

Each time people talks about their investment in stock market, I would tell them that they are not doing AN investment if everyday they are watching the computer screen tracking their stocks every minutes. Shouting in excitement when the stock when up 1 cent or 2. Not that shouting in excitement is a bad thing itself, but the mindset behind such action is. I too would be shouting in excitement if my stock went up RM1 in an hour !

So, when to learn the very real meaning of making AN investment in stock market? Probably the best time to learn the real meaning of investment is during bull market. During such time, one does not need much persuasion to draw into the bandwagon of excited crowd. However, the learning doesn't really start when one joined the bull market crowd. The learning starts when the market turns for worse. Believe me, you will learn what really is AN investment from that point. Learning from the hardest way is the best lesson you could ever get.

The next time you are about to click buy, ask your self this, am i doing an investment or trading? If your heart say target price is 30 cents in 3 months and then run. That's good and fine. Atleast you know what you are in for.

I had done all that trading mindset, punting mindset, chasing after stock, tips, contra and whatnot. At the end of the day, you would probably get back to square one from where you have started. The only thing you get is .... heart attack.

Good luck

Presbhd - bruised but certainly not out Ep. Final

Presbhd price has recovered. From the most scary moment at RM1.33 to now at RM2.32. What a ride indeed.

All-time high close (post ex-bonus) : RM2.36 on 22.07.2014

All-time low close (post ex-bonus) : RM1.33 on 17.12.2014

Ex-bonus on 30.04.2014

Has anyone keep their cool and did nothing during the bash-down period between September 2014 and December 2014? Even if you have stayed cool but did you remain stay cool during the recovering period between January 2015 and until recently? I believe many have exited during the bash-down period but some have waited until the recovering period but subsequently exited totally as well. This observation of mine is based on a small sample of investors which I am acquaintance with. But I believe it is the general scenario.

Some of my associates asked whether I am still "in-love" with Presbhd. Well, the following is my answer to their curious question.

I did sold 5% of my total holding during the recovering period in January. As can see above, there are only 2 sales activities of Presbhd since 2012 in this particular investment account ! So for those who think UncleZ never sell stock after he made his purchase is far from the truth. I do sell stock but for specific reason. Certainly not because of the usual knee-jerk reaction that many investors did.

Mind to calculate what is the profit per unit share based on yesterday closing price for those purchases made in early 2012.

If you have invested one unit of Presbhd on 09.12.2013 when its price was traded at RM2.68, which was the day I first mentioned this darling stock in this blog, one would have make 196% gain. This is for a short 1 year plus 3 months investment horizon.

Make it more interest. If one have invested one unit of Presbhd since Feb 2012 at RM0.96, imagine the profit one is getting. Ofcourse for that you need to keep for more than 3 years. But think again. If one could make 383% profit, would one willing to consider to invest for 3 years?

Its price closed at RM2.32 on 10.03.2015.

My first stock selection for this 2015

Not too long ago many experts screamed of high oil price above USD100 is here to stay. Some even went further to say it is new normal for oil price. Now we know how wrong these experts were. When oil price went up above the magical number USD100, everyone got worry and rightly so. This is because price of goods will follow suit. Pump petrol went up. Transportation fee went up. Construction cost went up. But the good thing is kangkong price went down. Much to the relief of some people. Joke aside. But what surprise me is when oil price tumbling down, the same fear is being re-play again. Ain't we suppose to rejoice when oil price coming down. Construction industry will be the first to benefit from lower oil price. Contractors who have secured construction works way before the drop of oil price will enjoy substantial saving when they carry out the construction works. 

This situation is quite the similar during the shortage of mild steel bar crisis in 2007/08. Contractors submitted their tender based on prevailing steel price and because of the uncertainty of steel price was so bad that property developers had to share the risk of price fluctuation with the contractors, or else no contractor is willing to take up the job. Eventually steel price came down. Many savvy contractors were laughing to the bank when the price of steel bar dropped from high above RM4,000 per tonne to round RM2,000 plus because their tender price was pegged at high steel bar price of RM4,000 per tonne. The situation now is like a re-play of 2007/08 crisis but this time is on different commodity. Oil. This time around though, I hardly heard construction package being pegged to oil price. So, if you have tendered and secured any construction works way before the tumbling of oil price, you will certainly enjoy certain savings. 

With this in mind, we have been monitoring construction companies for some time now especially those that have secured jobs way before the plunge of oil price. The drop in oil price has not spare the KLSE and it was badly hit since September last year. Due to the negative sentiment, almost all stocks were hit including those that are fundamentally strong. However, not all are gloomy. With stock price battered, this makes it more compelling to re-look at some these construction companies. As the word goes, when people is fearful, you must be greedy. With oil price seems to have stabilised or atleast does not seem will go back to USD100 level and coupled with market sentiment has somewhat improved, it is opportune time to re-look into some construction stocks. One that is particularly stands out is Gadang. 

At current price, it is trading at low PE. More importantly, it yields 2.6% based on 4 cents dividend for FY2014 and I think FY2015 will show a better yield than this. With strong order book stood at above RM 1 billion and with lower oil price now and not to mention the company is tendering for highway jobs, this is a deal one must not missed.

This is my first stock selection for this year for another long journey that we called - long term investment.

Its price closed at RM1.52 on 23.02.2015.

Presbhd - bruised but certainly not out Ep.2

Presbhd - bruised but certainly not out Ep.2

 

Yesterday volume was the strongest since IPO. 20 millions shares changed hands in a single day. Price went up 23 cents to close at RM1.95. The price is nothing to shout about but at least provides some much needed relieve. I know many still hold high hope for the price to break its previous record of all-time high of RM2.41. Good company will always put high expectation onto itself and I see the management has what its takes to outperform market expectation.

 

They have mapped out their plans (of course some still in the pipeline) and I believe one by one will fall into places and will contribute positively to the company's bottom line. One has to be a loyal investor to able to enjoy from their success stories and I don't mean 1 month kind of loyal investor. Loyal means stay on during up or down market sentiment. Case in point - my first batch of investment in Presbhd was way back in 2011 at price around 80 cents. There were so many up and down market sentiment but I hang on simply because I know I will make big money from this stock in the long run.

 

Its price closed at RM1.95 on 26.01.2015.

600 towers story

“In the second quarter of this year, the MCMC will award the contract for 600 towers to be built in rural areas."

 “The contract for the first 400 towers came up to around RM900 million (US$252 million). The next phase will cost more than RM1.3 billion (US$360 million)"- a Member of Parliament of Malaysia

How many long-terms can we afford

It never failed to intrigue or impress me each time I have group conversation with young people. Some could articulate well on how they see good personal wealth management should be. Stock market investment not necessarily is one of the tools for good wealth management. Some see it as a devil indulgence while others see it as part and parcel of wealth management. To some extreme, some don't even know what and how stock market works just like they don't know how insurance-investment-linked scheme works. But surprisingly, they willing to part their money in insurance scheme even on monthly basis without knowing or asking hard questions on how it works. Here I am not insinuating that investment-linked insurance scheme is unwise investment. Far from it. I am just asking why people treat investment-linked insurance they way the did but not on stock market. I mean, "will you willing to part some money into stock market in monthly or quarterly basis the way you did for investment-linked insurance?". Most, if not all, responded with no or unsure answers and others said investment-linked has money saving feature in it besides one gets life insurance coverage. Rightly so. One thing for sure is investment-linked insurance is a long term commitment. Not one year or two years commitment but probably 10 years or more. I would say most people have no problem to commit this for long term. But when it comes to stock investment, most would not commit the same. What I want them to give some thought is why not they consider stock market as long term money saving tool the way they see investment-linked insurance.

 

The other day, someone in this blog asked me about what is the longest stock I had ever invested. That is a very interesting question. This question really triggered me to give some further thought about how I see long term investment once again. How many long-terms can we afford in our lifetime? The ultimate reason why we invest in stock market in the first place is to make money, regardless it is short or long term. If one can make 100% return in 5 years is good. If one can make 100% return in 3 years is even better. It is the best if one can make 100% return in 1 year! Of course some will dream of making 100% in 1 month. Nothing wrong. But the question is how many will see it as a life long learning and enriching experience besides making money?

 

Let me tell you this. A person with net worth of say 10 millions will see long term definition very differently from someone with net worth of say 100k. That person of net worth of 10 million will probably enjoy and satisfied even his long term investment gives him 50% return. But for a person of net worth say 100k would probably would not be satisfied even manage to make 2 or 3 long term investments of 100% return in his or her lifetime. What I want to drive at is don't look at making money from stock market purely on money sense alone. You will never satisfy even if you make 100% return. One would probably end up chasing an endless unsatisfied dream over and over again. But rather to treat stock market investment as life long learning and enriching experience. If one take this approach, one will take out the stress when investing in stock market.

 

By the way, OCK goes ex-bonus today. The price adjusted and open below a dollar. We shall see how's the Q3 results look like soon.

 

Its price open at RM0.95 upon ex-bonus today.