Thursday, 6 April 2017

Exciting Time

Whenever I started to hear "I should have buy more" or "I want to buy more now" or "What good stock to buy?", I know exciting time, yet again, has come to the stock market. Everyone yearn for it. It has been relatively uneventful period for the past one year for the stock market. Now is certainly a refreshing period. How long will it last this time? Nobody will know but why not we welcome it while it lasts. I am not suggesting we must pour everything we have into the stock market but rather we must invest sensibly.





Quite often during this period of time, people will start to ask "What stock can I invest?" Sometime I rather not to answer but trying to be polite, I just said "put some money that doesn't cause an arm or a leg if anything happened". Because I knew based on their demeanour, they already have decided to buy with or without my opinion. They just need someone there to reinforce whatever they intend to do soon or maybe already had did it. 3 most possible scenarios of their current situations will be when asked further:-

1) He or she has not invested anything prior to this or invested in some stocks.My question will be - what make you think you are really investing and not trading this time around and why now when the market is hot and not say 6 months ago when the market is cool?My humble answer is you are probably attracted by the easy money from the hot market. You will get out as soon as you get in. Therefore, you have to be careful dabble with stock market.

2) He or she has invested in some stock but the price not yet move and wanted to top up the same stock.My question will be - is the company still fundamentally good as the first time you bought it?
If yes, my humble answer is no harm to top up.

3) He or she has invested in some stock that price has moved up and wanted to top up the same stock instead of dispose it.My question will be - have you satisfied with the profit and has achieved what you have targeted during your first buy?If yes, my humble answer is take the profit and enjoy the fruit of your investment. Then take your time to hunt for next stock investment. Be disciplined and steadfast to your goal is the key to sustainable stock investment mindset. It doesn't matter if the stock price keeps climbing after you have disposed it. You have make your profit, and let someone makes theirs.

If no, my humble answer is no harm top up units of the same stock. The quantum is a matter of your personal risk tolerance. As for my recent case, I have topped-up 25% units when the price has increased 40%. The reason for doing this is pure mathematics to plan my top up arrangement rather than based on emotion. Bear in mind, this arrangement might not work for you if your current stock holding is less than 10,000 units. By stating 40% figure doesn't mean I have set my exit price. Certainly not. My exit price is a function of the company financial performance in future, it means as long as the company grows, my exit price grows in tandem, it means my exit price is dynamic, it means it is a long term investment.

Whatever it is, the bottom line always is we must make money from stock investment. Doesn't matter how much you have made, as long as you are happy after selling, and that matters. Doesn't matter your next friend makes more profit than you, as long as you know you have made the right stock choice and it had given you that profit, and that matters.

By the way, many had asked why I did not talk about JAKS. Well, i think recent events had already attracted so much attention. Nothing more need to talk about, really. You can make your own judgement. To buy or to sell or to stay, only give us the same outcome - that is we will still glue to the computer screen for some time now.

Good luck.





Saturday, 1 April 2017

My apology and 2017 stock recommendation

My 2016 stock selection did not performance as expected. Nevertheless, at RM1.48, it still give us a 22% gain since December 2015. I wish those who received my report on JAKS are still holding on to the stock until now. Please accept my apology for the "slow" performance of this stock. I was wrong. I would like to think last one year could bring better price action in this stock price but it did not as anticipated.


If you have indeed keep the stock until now, not only you have gained a 22% in capital but more importantly you have gained the wisdom of patience in the game of long term stock investment and that's more important than a 22% gain.


How about this year 2017? I have one stock recommendation for 2017. Actually, I was a bit shy when JAKS stock did not performance as what I would have expected. Because of this, I was a bit reluctant to make new recommendation for year 2017 back in January. Maybe it is time now to share my 2017 stock recommendation but there is a caveat - the stock has climbed 33% since the first batch of my purchase in September 2016.


For those who have contributed to my grandson's education fund previously, I wish you could be kind enough to continue to do so this time around. As a token of appreciation, a report on this new stock will be provided, similar to the report on JAKS. If you are not keen, well, no problem.


Nevertheless, here you are, RCECAP is the one stock that I have invested for this year.






Don't worry. There is no April's Fool.


Good luck.


Its stock price closed at RM1.78 on 31 March 2017.


unclezm@gmail.com

Thursday, 22 September 2016

6 months has passed

Yes. I was away from this blog for 6 months. After my last post, I told myself I should leave my share market thought for awhile. If not, it is against what I have been telling people that stock market is for long term. Talking about stock market every now and then is no different playing into stock market everyday. Emotion tends to creep in to cloud our judgment. We should look at stock market once in awhile, make our stock investment and leave it as it is. Come back after some time and certainly not every day or week. Some advocate 3 months. But I think 6 months is still reasonable. If you are one hardcore long term stock investor, 3 months or 6 months or even 1 year is nothing. This is because if you have been buying good stock, the feeling should be like - after 1 year, when you open your fixed deposit account and you know very well your fixed deposit values will definitely increase and not decrease. In stock market is the same. Of course I am not talking about just 3% increase like what fixed deposit interest rates would give you. We should aim higher. But then even if you can get 20% increase in stock values after 1 year is pretty decent.


My grandson wishes to thank those who had contributed to my little project which now has allowed him to buy some educational materials

The last 6 months has not been easy for stock market. I think everyone knows the reasons. This is just part and parcel of stock market risks. If your stock price has dropped, don't worry too much. Anything goes down will come up again.


Admittedly, the stock I recommended last December has not been doing well for the last nine months. Well, I recalled the same goes to Gadang, a stock selection of mine last year. Give it some time, and now look at its price. It has already increased by 100% since Here in February 2015 and Here in November 2015, and I threw a challenge Here in December 2015 to my associates.


Actually, my absence for the last few months was also partly due to health scare. But my doctors had since gave me a clean bill of health some 2 weeks ago. I am slowing adjust back to my usual routine.


Good Luck

Monday, 21 March 2016

0.60 is a good start

The recent news flow has excite the market somewhat.


This guy has my trust for putting my money into his company stock


From a ACE stock to full fledged main board stock, it is certainly has come a long way. Recently the company has done another right thing - reward its shareholders with its maiden dividend.

For those who just come to know this stock recently will thought this is just another temporary hype that will fade away just as fast as it came. But the thing is, I enjoy this kind of feeling. It's nice feeling even though it is once in awhile. It's all boiled down to the fact that I know this company has been doing all the right things in managing the company on the back of solid business model. Recap. My first taste with this stock was some time back in mid 2013 when I first purchase the first tranche of shares at RM0.55. Here. And I first talked about this stock here in March 2014. Here. This stock had went through a bonus issue and right-with-attached-free-warrant issue corporate exercise since then. Consider the price adjustment for these two corporate exercises, the total portfolio value based on current price has actually tripled as compare to the price at the time of my first tranche of shares was made (There was also private placement exercise for selected investors along the way. Imagine the profit these investors had made). No doubt it took two and three-quarter years to achieve this result. I believe many people don't mind though. That is why it is called long term investment. On top of that, I don't have any worry investing my money into this kind of stock and I have good night sleep every night. I don't know about you but that's very important to me. Furthermore, dividend has started to flow in. Investing in stock market supposes to be a healthy endeavour experience and not a stressful mental workout.


Good luck.


Its price closed at RM0.835 on 18.03.2016


Tuesday, 15 March 2016

To buy or not to buy

To buy or not to buy

Or rather to invest or not to invest.

I believe most people have this predicament when comes to invest their money into stock market or into any particular stock for that matter.  Sometime we asked this question to someone, sometime we asked this question to ourself silently and in more extreme situation, we asked someone upstairs for guidance. There are many reasons why this question is asked.


Why is it so. If one has done their homework, had done the homework on the financial numbers, had researched the company profile, their businesses, and even analysts have also given their outperform outlook, then why are we still asking this basic question - to buy or not to buy.

What are we really waiting for?

There seemed to be few reasons and some are rather perplexing. For example, I have a friend who do not buy or invest any stock even after he had done all the necessary homework. In the end, he bought a totally different stock altogether. When i asked him why. His answer was "I was about to buy but last minute my friend said this company cannot invest. My friend said this company has this and that problems. So better don't buy". "So what about your time doing all those researched", I asked further. "I was scare when my friend told me that", was the reply.

Another reason i noticed is there are too much information and this overload ourself. Wealth of analyst's reports, financial data, company information, gossip and whatnot and this make us confused on which stock to invest. Not that the stocks are not good but it is simply too many of them. Most people have limited fund to invest and this make us want to get the ONE stock that could give us the fastest capital returns in shortest possible time. And i see this as major hindrance to train ourself to survive in stock market in the long run. Many do not realize they actually end up as stock trader instead of stock investor.

When one decides to invest their money into stock market, the first question to ask is not "to buy or not to buy". Never. It is also not the question of "is time to buy now or not". Don't. The one question should ask yourself is "can I buy or cannot buy".

Can or cannot is related to capability to do something. Therefore, can buy or cannot buy is related to whether one could afford to do it. But be careful too. Can afford to do it now doesn't mean one can afford the same in the future. For example, one may afford to buy a car now but does mean one could afford to continue to own it in the future.

Once the question of afford(ability) is settled, then lets talk about objective. The objective must be about long term investment. If the objection is about quick bite and run, what you just read is irrelevant.

Many people asked me this question of "is it time now to buy". I have very simple answer if I asked myself this question. But my answer to myself might not be acceptable to the next people simply because of the above question has not been settled just yet.

If one has 100k to invest doesn't mean one could afford to invest in stock market because, first, the mindset is different which, in turn affect your objective. Second, could you afford the same, say, a year or two from now. Put it another way. If one has 100k to invest but needs the money to do something else in a year time. One could afford to invest the money now but when needs the money later, he or she may not able to get out in time. Worry will start to set in. The mindset will be clouded with uncertainty. One will be worried that the stock might not go up. Worst still if the stock went down then he or she is force to sell at a loss when the money is needed for something else.

But if the 100k is without any foreseeable plan to use, I believe the mindset is very much different. Time factor to get out from the stock market is not there to force you to make critical decision.


But how many people have the luxury of 100k sitting idling in bank or under the pillow waiting to invest in stock. Never mind. What you need is a correct mindset to start with. It works the same even you have only 5k. Once you have the correct mindset, you wouldn't worry too much of the current fluctuation of price because it is just emotional play caused by market players. And you wouldn't worry too much of the company itself because the company is as solid as hardrock. Ofcourse you must have done your homework well enough. Therefore, if affordability issue is settled, mindset is clear, company is solid, then it is THE time that will help you achieve your objective. And the time i am talking here is long term.


Good luck.




Monday, 7 March 2016

Will anyone loves this stock

"Barring any adverse developments, the Group will endeavor to achieve a commendable performance for 2016"


"The Group's Construction division is expected to perform satisfactorily as the progress of work moves according to schedule"



Snapshot of its Construction division's quarterly revenue and profit:-
Q2Y2015 : RM51.2 million & RM4.8 million
Q3Y2015 : RM45.9 million & RM5.2 million
Q4Y2015 : RM84.8 million & RM14.3 million


Will anyone loves this stock ? No. Nobody loves it but only UncleZ ..... initially.



Sunday, 14 February 2016

Stock market is a game of prediction

What? You must be kidding, Z !

That was one of the reaction immediately when I told one of my business associates who is very savvy in business but not doing so savvy in stock market.

If stock market is indeed game of prediction, then it is no different with gambling, was the next disbelief response. Actually I already know that going be the response. In fact not only it will come from him but will likely by most people, if not all.


Late last year, stock market brought back some shine to many people. Many stocks hit new high. This brought back many retail players into the market. Then not long after that, in January, the market was badly shaken. In fact, many economists have predicted the economy of the country will not be doing well long before 2016 greets us. Yes. Many economists predicted that. And on the same backdrop, many stock market experts too predicted the stock market won't be doing well in coming months. There were many whispers predicting December 2015 was going to be last window dressing exercise to help prop up some stock prices before headwinds going to hit us in 2016. On the other hand, in the midst of these headwinds, some analysts predicted which sector of stocks to invest in to reap maximum profits. Some go as far as to use fengshui to help reinforce that prediction. Some use technical analysis to predict the behaviour of stock price. So you see. 

Everyone and anyone is trying to predict what will happen to the stock market in the coming days or months. Everyone and anyone who buys stocks is based on his or her prediction that stock will perform. With the onslaught of some many predictions, our hands are so full that we don't know which one prediction is more accurate than the next one. Many people failed in stock market because they use the wrong prediction based on the wrong reasons and from the wrong sources at the wrong time.

If one predicts December 2015 is going to be window dressing exercise, one would have high tendency to buy in Nov and sell when price is up in Dec. This kind of prediction might be true but it is wrong reason to buy stocks.

But if one chooses the prediction of foreign funds might be coming back because of MYR currency is so weakened now that it is cheap for them to come back to our shore, one might consider to higher the bet based on this prediction.

That brings me back to the stock that I fall in love this year. I believed in the prediction that the company will do well based on the information I received and trusted with good reasons. But it is still a prediction on that of its stock price performance. No more no less.